Will it be lights out in 2009?

Lights out? According to a new study, the U.S. may see serious risks of brownouts or blackouts in 2009.

The report, "Lights Out in 2009?," conducted by The NextGen Energy Council Management Information Services, Inc. last month warns that the U.S. may see crippling power brownouts or blackouts as early as next summer.

"The U.S. faces potentially crippling electricity brownouts and blackouts beginning in the summer of 2009, which may cost tens of billions of dollars and threaten lives," the study predicts.

In order for these threats to be minimized, electricity generation and transmission groups must make adjustments immediately, the report suggests, adding that the West Coast is particularly vulnerable.

Here's the problem: U.S. base-load generation capacity reserve margins have declined to 17% in 2007 from 30% to 40% in the early 1900'. Currently, a 12% to 15% capacity reserve margin is the minimum required to ensure reliability and stability of the nation's electricity system.

By the year 2016, the study shows the U.S. will need more than 14,500 miles of new transmission, in order to support the 18% growth. This exceeds the projected base load growth in generation capacity by 10%.

Bob Hanfling, chairman of the non-profit NextGen Energy Council, says, "This isn't the first study to come to these conclusions, and it won't be the last."

Click here for the "Lights Out in 2009?" report.