Showing posts with label sub-prime crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sub-prime crisis. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Housing market improves. Really?

There seems to be some good news coming from the housing market. After weeks of a sub-prime crises opera, the month of September has shown some increase in the sale of new homes. The US commerce department reports that new home sales were up 2.7% in September 2008.

But, before you pop open the champagne, consider the fact that August 2008 saw a 35% decline in new home sales as compared to August 2007. So any slight increase is sure to reflect positively. The LA Times, report that Western US saw the biggest spike in the housing market, with a 23% increase as compared to August 2008.

People who delayed buying their 'dream home' are making a killing with the prices of houses in many states at an all-time-low. But despite this, builders are jittery and have decided to 'go slow' when it comes to current projects. In some markets there seems to be an inventory of homes for the next 10 months. If the demand for the housing market continues, then it would mean good news for builders, else they would be forced to discount their inventory further.

With threat of a recession, job losses and general distrust of the stock market creating a perfect financial storm, it looks like the housing market is not likely to see the rainbow anytime soon.

Monday, September 15, 2008

No surprise that Lehman Brothers went belly up

The 158-year-old financial behemoth Lehman Brothers has closed its operations as of today.

With both Barclay's and Bank of America refusing to play the "good Samaritan" and the Federal government throwing their hands up, the inevitable happened. Lehman Brothers filed for a Chapter 11 bankruptcy petition. One of the most respected firms on Wall Street, just went belly up.

But wasn't bankruptcy supposed to happen to non-descript firms run by inexperienced, non-MBA type managers? Definitely not for Lehman Brothers. They are after all managed by smart Harvard and Wharton educated financial gurus who spent years and years perfecting their trade. So how did such a smart group of people end up making, let's call it an "error of judgment?"

The fabled run on Wall Street had to come to an abrupt end when the debt side of their P&L statement showed $60 billion. I wonder what CEO Richard Fuld was thinking? A 30-year-veteran at Lehman (incidentally he had quipped that it was the only company that he has ever worked for) Fuld has been credited with weathering many a financial storm over the past decade; including Asian Stock Crisis, Dot com bust, September 11 (Lehman rose from the ashes of the attack when its headquarters at Three World Financial Centre had been severely damaged due to falling debris) among others.

But in the end--I guess his luck ran out--he could not bring the rabbit out of the hat this time around.

But, it was not like the signs were never there. The share prices of Lehman Brothers have been steadily spiraling southward since February '08, when its share prices reached a high of $66 (canada.com). Last Friday, it was selling for $3.65 (wsj.com), little more than a cheese burger at your local joint. The sub-prime home loan crisis has just consumed its next victim, this time a company with market capitalization of $250 million as of September 15, 2008 (wikipedia.org).

Just when you were trying to soothe your frazzled nerves, comes the next blow. The other darling on Wall Street, Merrill Lynch just got gobbled up by Bank of America. It was an all-stock deal and cost BOA a whopping $50 Billion. This also means BOA will be burdened with all the losses accrued by Merrill Lynch over the years. An interesting observation is, as of Friday's closing the Merrill shares traded at $17.05, so one wonder's why BOA would pay $29 per share when buying them over.

Hope their CEO Kenneth Lewis has a really good reason for that.

The sub-prime mortgage crises has already taken a big toll on the jittery financial market. The domino effect in a way was spear headed by Bear Stearns, soon the Feds set in to stabilize the market by taking over Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae, now its the turn of Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch to take the infamous center stage.

There's no telling what more is in store in the coming weeks. Keep your fingers crossed.

--Editorial by George Lazar